Two
rare matchups and two common ones
By
Jeff Sallas
Georgia at
Bama – The game of the week (Saturday at 2:30 on CBS)
The first
rare matchup of the week... but with the new SEC scheduling they should see
more of each other. Newly ranked Bama
comes in as the favorite over the top ten Bulldogs. The Tide looked strong last week at Arkansas while Georgia got
another quiet win over New Mexico St.
It sounds like at this time that senior QB Tyler Watts is still hurt and
that favors Georgia. However there
could also be rain and that favors Bama.
Both states
are going bonkers over the success of their respective teams. It is Bama’s best start in awhile and
Georgia’s best start since 1980, their national title run. I think we will know a lot more about both
teams after this one. For Bama this is
the best passing team they have played since they were torched by LSU last
year. Bama lost all their games last
year against passing teams. Can they
stop the trend this week?
I think it
all hinges on David Greene and he hasn’t been too good so far. However he has some weapons. Georgia has absolutely got to get WRs
Terrence Edwards and Fred Gibson involved in the game. Bama’s corners will have a hard time
matching up with these guys. Georgia
should really look to pass a whole lot as Bama has the best run defense in the
conference and is much more vulnerable to the pass. For Bama, their secondary will have to step up.
On the other
side of the ball, it is even easier.
Bama will establish the run and then pass off it. Georgia’s success will be determined by how
successful they are in slowing down Bama’s rushing attack. The Georgia defense has looked pretty good
this year especially at South Carolina.
They should be used to dealing with a mobile QB after dealing with South
Carolina’s Cory Jenkins. Bama’s OL and
RBs are much better though.
Another
storyline is the two coaches. Both came
in to the SEC last year but Bama’s Dennis Franchione has seemed to get more
attention from the national media than Mark Richt. However Richt had the better record and beat Tennessee in
Knoxville. Richt caught a lot of flak
though for bad clock management against Auburn and in Georgia’s bowl game. This game will be another opportunity for
both coaches to really show their stuff.
It is hard to
pick against Bama at home and playing well however this is still basically the
same Bama secondary. I think they will
have a tough time with Gibson and Edwards and the Georgia passing game. I picked Bama last week but I just think
Georgia can score more points this week...
GEORGIA OVER
BAMA
Arkansas at
Tennessee (Saturday at 6:45 on ESPN)
A familiar
matchup that will soon not be as familiar.
The new SEC schedule starting next year severs this as an annual
game. I don’t think the Razorbacks will
be complaining. However this game could
be closer than it should with Tennessee’s inner turmoil since the Florida
loss. There has been finger-pointing
since Florida and a slow start vs. Rutgers last week.
It looks like
Jabari Davis will get most of the carries this week since Cedric Houston is
hurt. However nobody has really broken
out yet and Tennessee only rushed for a measly 94 yards on 23 carries last
week. The running game that looked to
be blooming early has fizzled of late.
Fulmer seems to have a tough time with out a hoss at running back. This is a big problem but I think Tennesee’s
biggest problem is the total lack of a deep or even marginally long passing
game. Last week Tennessee threw the
ball 31 times for only 151 yards. It
has been that way most of the season. I
think Tennessee must develop a much better vertical passing game.
Meanwhile the
Tennessee defense has been pretty good.
They were mostly undone by turnovers against Florida. They should feast on the anemic Razorback
offense as Bama did. One has to wonder
why Arkansas didn’t run the option a lot more last week with Matt Jones at
QB. I would think we would see more of it
this week since it is what Arkansas has the best talent for. If Houston Nutt is to stay much longer at
Arkansas he has got to recruit a QB.
The Razorbacks will still beat some people but I think they will
continue to be at a big disadvantage without a QB who can pass.
If Tennesee’s
offense continues to struggle I think this one could be close. Otherwise it could get ugly...
TENNESSEE
OVER ARKANSAS
Florida at
Ole Miss – (Saturday at 11:00 on CBS)
Another rare
matchup but a pretty interesting one.
It matches up two of the most hyped SEC QBs coming into this year. Both QBs seem to have gotten back on
track. Grossman has thrown for 300+
yards the last 2 weeks while Eli Manning rang up 386 yards passing against
Vandy 2 weeks ago. Ole Miss was open last
week so they got to rest up and prepare for this game.
I am sure
Florida coach Ron Zook watched Vandy run up over 250 yards rushing on the
Rebels so I am betting we see a lot of Ernest Graham. I am sure there will be a few deep passes as well. I simply can’t envision a scenario of Ole
Miss slowing down Florida. The only
thing the Rebels can hope for is that the Gators come out very flat and
uninspired. The Rebels have given up
over 700 yards of offense their last 2 games.
Vandy burned them on the ground and Texas Tech burned them through the
air. Oh boy...
Meanwhile the
Gator defense has been pretty stingy.
They were all over Tennessee and Kentucky scored most of it’s TDs on
special teams or off good field position from turnovers. The Gator defense isn’t as good as it was
last year but they are a very underrated unit.
I guess if Ole Miss is on fire and Florida is flat this one could be
close otherwise...
FLORIDA OVER
OLE MISS
Miss St at
South Carolina – (Saturday at 12:00)
The other
familiar matchup that will also not be an annual affair anymore. It has been a really good game the last few
years. This year it matches up 2 teams
trying to rebound. It has been a tough
road for Miss St. They lose a tough one
at home to Auburn and then have to go on the road to Baton Rouge and
Columbia. South Carolina finally got
back on track last week grabbing a squeaker at Vandy. Both teams would really like to grab this one.
I think this
will probably turn out to be a great game.
I think Miss St might finally be able to get something going on
offense. South Carolina has a decent defense
but definitely not the one they have had the last 2 years. They don’t have LSU’s hulking DL or Auburn’s
LBs. However Miss St has just got to
cut down on the turnovers and the penalties that are killing them.
On the other
side of the ball State will have to look out for Corey Jenkins, by far South
Carolina’s best weapon. I really think
Miss St has more on offense than South Carolina does. I would like to pick Miss St, I really think they could grab this
game. The one thing that stops me is
the turnovers and penalties they have had the last few weeks. Capitalizing on those mistakes is how Lou
Holtz likes to win games so...
SOUTH
CAROLINA OVER MISS ST
Elsewhere...
LSU over LA
Laf.
Auburn,
Kentucky and Vandy are open this week.
***I was given a hard time by a reader last week for sending out a record peppered with so many patsy games. I thought that was very evident and never purported to be any kind of “picking guru”. I just enjoy doing it and just wanted to keep up with the totals. I don’t pick against the spread because I don’t care anything about gambling and just don’t have any interest in doing that. So to be “more accurate” here is my record picking winners and losers from SEC games or SEC teams playing teams from the other BCS conferences (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac 10 and the Big East):
Week 1: 4-1
Week 2: 1-2
Week 3: 4-0
Week 4: 3-1
Week 5: 6-0
So overall picking SEC vs. SEC/BCS opponents I am 18-4. Overall including patsies I went 7-0 and am 38-5. But again I just do this for fun. Most people on this list know as much or more about this stuff than I do.